Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multicountry Perspective

The relationship among national institutional structures, economic factors, and domestic entrepreneurial activity: a multicountry study

We draw on the construct of a country institutional profile to identify normative, cognitive, and regulatory institutional structures that may influence a country’s entrepreneurial activity. Results show that these three dimensions of the institutional profile, as well as economic factors such as per capita GDP, play distinct roles in promoting entrepreneurial activity in a country. Normative i...

Does the Yield Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? A Multicountry Analysis

Despite their importance, forecasts of real economic activity can be unreliable. Forecasts based on macroeconomic models are often hindered by the lack of timely and accurate data and the complexity of the forecasting model. These difficulties have led to a growing interest in using financial variables to supplement traditional model-based forecasts of real economic activity. The advantages of ...

Uncertainty in Economic Analysis and the Economic Analysis of Uncertainty∗

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Sensemaking in economics : economic activity from a social - philosophical perspective

The purpose of this project is to formulate the theoretical fundamentals of an economic philosophy that is understood as a component of a practically oriented social philosophy. I start by recapitulating the major critiques of the traditional framework of economic theory, in particular of the concepts of rational choice and 'methodological individualism'. The limited scope of these concepts for...